Immagine di copertina

Modeling and Forecasting Car Ownership Based on Socio-Economic and Demographic Indicators in Turkey

Huseyin Ceylan, Ozgur Baskan, Cenk Ozan

Abstract


Since car ownership is an important determinant to analyze car travel behavior especially in developing countries, this paper deals with modeling and forecasting car ownership in Turkey based on socio-economic and demographic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, Gasoline Price (GP), car price and number of employees by using multiple nonlinear regression analysis. Although most of the studies on this subject prefer using annual data, we use monthly data for the analysis of car ownership since all explanatory variables and exchange rates used for the modeling are unstable and vary even in a short period in developing countries such as Turkey. Thus, it may be possible to reflect the effects of socio-economic and demographic indicators on car ownership more properly. During the modeling process, exponential and polynomial nonlinear regression models are set up and then tested to investigate their applicability for car ownership forecasting. Based on results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the polynomial models has been selected to forecast car ownership for the year 2035. In order to reveal the possible different trends of the independent variables in future, car ownership is forecasted along the scenarios which are related to the GDP per capita and GP. Results show that Turkey’s car ownership may vary between 230 and 325 per thousand capita in 2035 depending on economic achievements, global oil prices and national taxation policies. The lowest and the highest values of the car ownership may provide insight to car producers and transport planners in Turkey. Another significant result presented in this study is that car ownership rate will be substantially lower in Turkey than that in the European Union countries despite it has an increasing trend in the past two decades.

Keyword


Car ownership; socio-economic and demographic indicators; multiple nonlinear regression

Full Text

PDF (English)

Riferimenti bibliografici


Acker, V. V., & Witlox, F. (2010). Car ownership as a mediating variable in car travel behaviour research using a structural equation modelling approach to identify its dual relationship. Journal of Transport Geography, 18(1), 65-74. doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.05.006

Akay, E., & Tümsel, B. (2016). An Empirical Investigation of Household Automobile Ownership: A Sequential Logit Model. Social Sciences Research Journal, 4(4), 35-45. Retrieved from http://dentaworld.dergipark.gov.tr/ssrj/issue/22475/240409

Anowar, S., Yasmin, S., Eluru, N., & Miranda-Moreno, L. F. (2014). Analyzing car ownership in Quebec City: a comparison of traditional and latent class ordered and unordered models. Transportation, 41(5), 1013-1039. doi:10.1007/s11116-014-9522-9

Archontoulis, S. V., & Miguez, F. E. (2015). Nonlinear Regression Models and Applications in Agricultural Research. Agronomy Journal, 107(2), 786-798. doi:10.2134/agronj2012.0506

Azadeh, A., Neshat, N., Rafiee, K., & Zohrevand, A. (2012). An adaptive neural network-fuzzy linear regression approach for improved car ownership estimation and forecasting in complex and uncertain environments: the case of Iran. Transportation Planning and Technology, 35(2), 221-240. doi:10.1080/03081060.2011.651887

Baskan O., Ceylan H., Haldenbilen S., & Ceylan H. (2008). Spreadsheet Modeling Approach for Estimating Car Ownership. Proceedings from the 8th International Congress on Advances in Civil Engineering. Cyprus.

Bates, D. M., & Watts, D. G. (2007). Nonlinear regression analysis and its applications. New York: Wiley. doi:10.1002/9780470316757

Ben-Akiva, M., Manski, C. F., & Sherman, L. (1981). A Behavioral Approach to Modelling Household Motor Vehicle Ownership and Applications to Aggregate Policy Analysis. Environment and Planning A, 13(4), 399-411. doi:10.1068/a130399

Chen, X., & Zhang, H. (2012). Evaluation of Effects of Car Ownership Policies in Chinese Megacities. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2317, 32-39. doi:10.3141/2317-05

Clark, S. D. (2007). Estimating local car ownership models. Journal of Transport Geography, 15(3), 184-197. doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2006.02.014

Çodur, M. Y., & Tortum, A. (2009). Modelling car ownership in Turkey using neural networks. Proceedings from the Institution of Civil Engineers - Transport, 162(2), 97-106. doi:10.1680/tran.2009.162.2.97

Dargay, J. M. (2001). The effect of income on car ownership: evidence of asymmetry. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 35(9), 807-821. doi:10.1016/s0965-8564(00)00018-5

Dargay, J., & Gately, D. (1997). Vehicle ownership to 2015: Implications for energy use and emissions. Energy Policy, 25(14-15), 1121-1127. doi:10.1016/s0301-4215(97)00104-3

Dargay, J., & Gately, D. (1999). Incomes effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960–2015. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 33(2), 101-138. doi:10.1016/s0965-8564(98)00026-3

Energy Market Regulatory Authority. (2016). Turkish Petroleum Market Report 2015. Retrieved December 24, 2017, from http://www.emra.org.tr/TR/Dokuman/8321

Energy Market Regulatory Authority. (2017). Turkish Petroleum and LPG Market Report 2017. Retrieved March 6, 2018 from http://www.epdk.org.tr/TR/Dokumanlar/Petrol/YayinlarRaporlar/Fiyatlandirma

Eurostat. (2018a). Retrieved January 02, 2018, from http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=road_eqs_carhab〈=en

Eurostat. (2018b). Retrieved March 06, 2018, from http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=road_eqs_carage〈=en

Eurostat. (2018c). Retrieved January 02, 2018, from http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tec00114&plugin=1

Eurostat. (2018d). Retrieved January 02, 2018, from http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=demo_pjanind〈=en

Guerra, E. (2015). The geography of car ownership in Mexico City: a joint model of households’ residential location and car ownership decisions. Journal of Transport Geography, 43, 171-180. doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2015.01.014

International Monetary Fund. (2011). World Economic Outlook April 2011, Tensions from the Two-Speed Recovery Unemployment, Commodities, and Capital Flows. Retrieved January 02, 2018, from http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2016/12/31/Tensions-from-the-Two-Speed-Recovery-Unemployment-Commodities-and-Capital-Flows

International Monetary Fund. (2017a). World Economic Outlook October 2017, Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges. Retrieved January 02, 2018, from http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/09/19/world-economic-outlook-october-2017

International Monetary Fund. (2017b). Retrieved January 02, 2018, from http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/02/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2017&ey=2022&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&pr1.x=44&pr1.y=16&c=186&s=NGDPD%2CNGDPDPC%2CPPPGDP%2CPPPPC%2CPPPSH%2CLUR%2CLP&grp=0&a=

Jansson, J. (1989). Car Demand Modelling and Forecasting: A New Approach. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 23(2), 125-140. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/20052878

Korkmaz, E., Doğan, E., & Akgüngör, A. P. (2016). Estimation of Car Ownership in Turkey Using Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm. Proceedings from the 3th International Conference on Traffic and Transport Engineering. Belgrade, Serbia. Retrieved from http://ijtte.com/uploads/news_files/ICTTE%20Belgrade%202016_Proceedings.pdf

Kumar, M., & Rao, K. V. (2006). A Stated Preference Study for a Car Ownership Model in the Context of Developing Countries. Transportation Planning and Technology, 29(5), 409-425. doi:10.1080/03081060600917793

Lam, W. H., & Tam, M. (2002). Reliability of territory-wide car ownership estimates in Hong Kong. Journal of Transport Geography, 10(1), 51-60. doi:10.1016/s0966-6923(01)00038-2

Matas, A., Raymond, J., & Roig, J. (2009). Car ownership and access to jobs in Spain. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 43(6), 607-617. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2009.04.003

Medlock, K. B., & Soligo, R. (2002). Car Ownership and Economic Development with Forecasts to the Year 2015. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 36(2), 163-188. Retrieved from http://www.ingentaconnect.com/contentone/lse/jtep/2002/00000036/00000002/art00001

Meurs, H. (1993). A panel data switching regression model of mobility and car ownership. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 27(6), 461-476. doi:10.1016/0965-8564(93)90052-m

Ministry for EU Affairs, Republic of Turkey (2018). Retrieved January 04, 2018, from https://www.ab.gov.tr/111_en.html

Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Republic of Turkey - Petrol. (2018). Retrieved January 02, 2018, from http://www.enerji.gov.tr/en-US/Pages/Petrol

Öğüt, K. S. (2004). S-Curve Models to Determine the Car Ownership in Turkey. ARI Bulletin of the Istanbul Technical University, 54(2), 70-76. Retrieved from http://web.itu.edu.tr/oguts/S-curve%20car%20ownership.pdf

Öğüt, K. S. (2006). Modeling Car Ownership in Turkey Using Fuzzy Regression. Transportation Planning and Technology, 29(3), 233-248. doi:10.1080/03081060600811004

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. (2016). Fossil Fuel Support Country Note: Turkey. Retrieved March 06, 2018, from http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/fileview2.aspx?IDFile=0144c270-446f-48db-88f0-4ea1542244a5

Pişkin, S. (2017). Automotive Sector Report. (in Turkish). Retrieved January 02, 2018, from http://www.tskb.com.tr/i/content/3081_1_Otomotiv%20Sektor%20Raporu.pdf

Potoglou, D., & Kanaroglou, P. S. (2008). Modelling car ownership in urban areas: a case study of Hamilton, Canada. Journal of Transport Geography, 16(1), 42-54. doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2007.01.006

Potoglou, D., & Susilo, Y. (2008). Comparison of Vehicle-Ownership Models. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2076, 97-105. doi:10.3141/2076-11

Ritter, N., & Vance, C. (2013). Do fewer people mean fewer cars? Population decline and car ownership in Germany. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 50, 74-85. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2013.01.035

Romilly, P., Song, H., & Liu, X. (2001). Car ownership and use in Britain: a comparison of the empirical results of alternative cointegration estimation methods and forecasts. Applied Economics, 33(14), 1803-1818. doi:10.1080/00036840011021708

Rota, M. F., Carcedo, J. M., & García, J. P. (2016). Dual approach for modelling demand saturation levels in the automobile market. The Gompertz curve: macro versus micro data. Investigación Económica, 75(296), 43-72. doi:10.1016/j.inveco.2016.07.003

Shen, Q., Chen, P., & Pan, H. (2016). Factors affecting car ownership and mode choice in rail transit-supported suburbs of a large Chinese city. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 94, 31-44. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2016.08.027

Sinniah, G. K., Shahi, M. Z., Vigar, G., & Aditjandra, P. T. (2014). Residential Location Preferences. The Significance of Socio-Cultural and Religious Attributes. TeMA Journal of Land Use, Mobility and Environment, 7(2), 223-238. doi:10.6092/1970-9870/2656

Soltanzadeh, H., & Masoumi, H. E. (2014). The Determinants of Transportation Mode Choice In The Middle Eastern Cities: The Kerman Case, Iran. TeMA Journal of Land Use, Mobility and Environment, 7(2), 199-222. doi:10.6092/1970-9870/2518

The World Bank. (2017). An overview of the World Bank’s work in Turkey. Retrieved January 02, 2018, from http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/254861507539327826/Turkey-Snapshot-Fall2017.pdf

The World Bank. (2018). The United Nations Population Division's World Urbanization Prospects. Retrieved March 06, 2018, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS?end=2016&locations=TR-EU&start=1960&view=%20chart&year_high_desc=true

Turkish Statistical Institute. (2018a). Retrieved January 02, 2018, from https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=89&locale=en

Turkish Statistical Institute. (2018b). Retrieved January 02, 2018, from http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/VeriBilgi.do?alt_id=1020

Turkish Statistical Institute. (2018c). Retrieved January 02, 2018, from https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/tufedagitimapp/

Turkish Statistical Institute. (2018d). Retrieved January 02, 2018, from http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1007

Woldeamanuel, M. G., Cyganski, R., Schulz, A., & Justen, A. (2009). Variation of households’ car ownership across time: application of a panel data model. Transportation, 36(4), 371-387. doi:10.1007/s11116-009-9210-3

Wu, T., Zhao, H., & Ou, X. (2014). Vehicle ownership analysis based on gdp per capita in China: 1963– 2050. Sustainability, 6(8), 4877-4899. doi:10.3390/su6084877

XLSTAT [Computer software]. (2018) Retrieved January 02, 2018, from https://www.xlstat.com/en/

Yagi, M., & Managi, S. (2016). Demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan. Transport Policy, 50, 37-53. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.05.011

Yang, Z., Jia, P., Liu, W., & Yin, H. (2017). Car ownership and urban development in Chinese cities: A panel data analysis. Journal of Transport Geography, 58, 127-134. doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.11.015

Yayar, R., Çoban, M. N., & Tekin, B. (2015). Identifying the Factors Affecting the Car Ownership: A Case Study in Urban Areas of the Province of Tokat. Journal of Management and Economics, 22(2), 603-617. doi:10.18657/yecbu.30802




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6092/1970-9870/5452

Metriche dell'articolo

Caricamento metriche ...

Metrics powered by PLOS ALM

Refback

  • Non ci sono refbacks, per ora.




Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
I cookie utilizzati servono al corretto funzionamento del sito. Proseguendo la navigazione senza modificare le impostazioni del browser, accetti di ricevere tutti i cookie.
Per maggiori informazioni.
ok


Direttore responsabile: Rocco Papa | print ISSN 1970-9889 | on line ISSN 1970-9870 | © 2008 | Registrazione: Cancelleria del Tribunale di Napoli, n° 6, 29/01/2008 | Rivista realizzata con Open Journal System e pubblicata dal Centro di Ateneo per le Biblioteche dell'Università di Napoli Federico II.